In under a week the much debated NSW Origin line up will be announced. We can only speculate on whom Bob Fulton and Laurie Daley will select to try and end the Maroons grip on the shield, but as sure as the sun will rise, it will have a number of us “couch experts” shaking our heads. With injuries and suspensions to Andrew Fifita and Greg Bird, opportunity will come knocking for some new or old New South Welshman. It took NSW 5 years to realise that the only way out of this hole was to build a team. The only issue with this logic is the way the selectors have applied it. They have shown unconditional support to Mitchel Pearce and cast aside a number of talented pivots who have outplayed him. They continue to allow debate over Jarryd Haynes best position, its Fullback, let’s move on. They dropped Robbie Farah after an average first showing in 2009, but he is far and away the best Hooker in NSW. NSW do not have a team of once in a generation players like QLD are currently fielding, but with most of the key players in this mighty team north of 30, now is the time for NSW to select players who can do the job. Here is my team and the numbers behind their selection.
Key: The statistics below are a quick way to combine a number of statistics, to achieve a rough figure of that players impact per game.
MA- (Minutes Average). Forwards only.
APPG- (Attacking Plays Per Game) Consists of Tries, Try Assists, Line Breaks, Line Break Assists, Forced Drop Outs and 40/20s, divided by games played.
SPPG- (Second Phase Per Game) Consists of Tackle Busts and Offloads divided by games played.
MPG- (Metres Per Game).
EPPG- (Errors/Penalties Per Game)
D%- (Defensive Percentage)
Fullback – Jarryd Hayne.
Jarryd is a proven big game performer and is the most well rounded Fullback that NSW have. Some people are of the opinion that Josh Dugan should be the NSW custodian. I think the numbers this year alone should show this to be a poor decision, let alone Hayne’s career of outplaying Josh Dugan in every area of the game besides Tackle Busts and Run Metres. Let’s compare the three options.
Hayne- 9 Games, MPG 145, APPG 3.78, SPPG 5.89, EPPG 2.2 & D% 74.
Dugan- 5 Games, MPG 152, APPG 1.20, SPPG 7.00, EPPG 1.6 & D% 72.
Stewart- 6 Games, MPG 88, APPG 3.83, SPPG 2.83, EPPG 0.8 & D% 84.
Hayne’s defence is down this year but the rest of his game is rocketing along. Dugan eats up allot of metres and breaks tackles, but has been unable to get over the line or assist his team mates. Stewart has transformed himself into a gun ball player in the last few seasons, but struggles for metres. Stewart would be my second choice because he has a superior defensive and attacking game, when compared to Dugan.
Left Wing – Brett Morris.
Not too much needs to be said about Brett Morris, we know what he brings to the table and that is tries, work rate and dependability in defence. He will be selected in this team and deservedly so, but we will do a comparison anyway.
Morris- 9 Games, MPG 114, APPG 1.89, SPPG 4.67, EPPG 1.33 & D% 83.
Richards- 9 Games, MPG 108, APPG 1.67, SPPG 2.44, EPPG 1.11 & D% 72.
Taufua- 4 Games, MPG 155, APPG 2.75, SPPG 4.00, EPPG 1.75 & D% 81.
Jorge Taufua makes a strong case for selection at this level, however, he does have errors in his game, and his defensive positioning during City Country was less than inspiring. Morris has a lot of big game experience behind him, you know what to expect and for that he would be in my team.
Left Centre – Michael Jennings.
Michael Jennings is another dependable chap who has played well the last two series and I cannot seem him missing selection. He is fast, knows how to cross the white line, and ever since he joined the Roosters, a very dependable defender.
Jennings- 9 Games, MPG 110, APPG 1.78, SPPG 3.11, EPPG 1.22 & D% 88.
Idris- 8 Games, MPG 135, APPG 0.13, SPPG 4.38, EPPG 1.25 & D% 93.
Croker- 9 Games, MPG 91, APPG 1.22, SPPG 3.11, EPPG 2.22 & D% 87.
Leilua- 9 Games, MPG 119, APPG 1.56, SPPG 5.67, EPPG 2.88 & D% 88.
As well as Jamal Idris is playing, he is not creating enough in attack. His stats look more like a Prop Forwards then a Centre. Croker is playing well in a poor team & Leilua has been encouraging but has way too many errors in his game. Jennings is really the only choice here.
Right Centre – Dylan Walker.
This selection will turn some heads because Josh Morris has been very dependable against Greg Inglis over the last two series, but he just doesn’t do enough in attack. That’s why I have gone for the young, quick, and creative Dylan Walker for right Centre. It is a dangerous idea to expose a new right edge to Inglis and Boyd, but cowards never prosper.
Walker- 8 Games, MPG 78, APPG 1.63, SPPG 3.38, EPPG 1.37 & D% 88.
Morris- 9 Games, MPG 89, APPG 1.00, SPPG 3.11, EPPG 0.88 & D% 87.
Hopoate- 9 Games, MPG 115, APPG 1.00, SPPG 2.11, EPPG 0.66 & D% 82.
These numbers are slightly unfair to Walker as he played the first part of the season at 5/8. Hopoate has come back to the game strong, he has lost none of his class, but isn’t ready to play just yet. I think without a doubt Josh Morris will be in the team, however, I would like to see a change on the right edge.
Right Wing – Daniel Tupou.
This position has been our problem child for years and several players have had a go – Uate, McManus, Hopoate, Fergusson and Merritt. Hopoate and Fergusson impressed us, McManus was solid, Merritt and Uate horrified us in defence. I think Daniel Tupou will get the nod this year due to his 195cm frame and work rate. Tries from kicks are a big factor in Origin and I think Tupou could make a huge impact. Defence is the only worry.
Tupou- 9 Games, MPG 127, APPG 2.13, SPPG 3.63, EPPG 1.38 & D% 79.
Uate- 7 Games, MPG 124, APPG 0.57, SPPG 2.14, EPPG 1.14 & D% 70.
McManus- 9 Games, MPG 110, APPG 0.89, SPPG 1.89, EPPG 1.11 & D% 70.
Mansour- 7 Games, MPG 176, APPG 1.71, SPPG 9.14, EPPG 2.42 & D% 79.
Simmons- 6 Games, MPG 107, APPG 1.50, SPPG 1.67, EPPG 1.16 & D% 83.
Uate and McManus are in poor form playing for a poor team, their defence has been woeful. Mansour has a superb work ethic and breaks tackles better than any other player. I would select Mansour except he has an extremely high error rate. Simmons is a solid performer who will never get a run. A case could be made for Hopoate to play in this position, and I wouldn’t be too worried if he did, but in my opinion Tupou is our man.
Five Eighth – Josh Reynolds.
Josh is the top performer in his position for NSW. His ability run and create space for his forwards and outside backs is top notch. Despite what people say about his kicking game, it’s not too bad. This season he is kicking more metres then James Maloney, and has one less repeat set to his name. His defence is superior to Maloney’s and he runs more metres.
Reynolds- 9 Games, MPG 66, APPG 3.33, SPPG 2.90, EPPG 1.22 & D% 89.
Maloney- 9 Games, MPG 46, APPG 2.22, SPPG 1.67, EPPG 2.00 & D% 83.
Carney- 6 Games, MPG 57, APPG 2.17, SPPG 2.00, EPPG 2.16 & D% 71.
Soward- 8 Games, MPG 18, APPG 3.00, SPPG 1.38, EPPG 0.25 & D% 79.
Sutton- 9 Games, MPG 80, APPG 1.89, SPPG 4.00, EPPG 1.67 & D% 94.
Sezer- 9 Games, MPG 48, APPG 2.14, SPPG 2.00, EPPG 1.57 & D% 87.
Townsend- 7 Games, MPG 52, APPG 2.86, SPPG 2.14, EPPG 1.42 & D%84.
Reynolds is clearly the form 5/8 amongst these players. Maloney attack is down and has more errors then he should. Carney is injury prone and has no commitment in defence this year, down 10% from his career average as a defender. Sutton is the most skilful ball playing back rower in the game. This is why he is included on my bench. If no one gets injured, and he is not required to play in the halves, then he could slot into the back row and make an impact. Soward is in decent form but he doesn’t run, break tackles, or offload. He is also very poor in defence. Townsend, there as a comparison, is out performing some of the big boys statistically anyway. I have not included Mullen because I believe he is a Halfback. Reynolds deserves the nod ahead of Maloney, but goal kicking and loyalty may help him to retain the number 6.
Halfback – Trent Hodkinson.
This is the most contentious position in the team. Believe me when I say Trent Hodkinson would not normally be on my radar, however, the way he has performed this year forces us to take notice. Personally I would like Jarrod Mullen for this position but goal kicking is too crucial to be secondary. For this reason Hodkinson gets the nod over Mullen. Adam Reynolds is also a superb goal kicker, however Hodkinson’s combination with Reynolds and his composure this year has been superb. Mitchell Pearce should not even be in consideration, his style does not suit Origin at all and he cannot build pressure. With only two repeat sets to his name this year and 7 last year, compared to Mullen’s 7 in 4 games this year and 26 last season. https://rugbyleaguestats.wordpress.com/2014/05/06/mitchell-pearce-does-he-make-the-grade/ I have previously written about Pearce and he did not receive a glowing review.
Hodkinson- 9 Games, MPG 50, APPG 2.78, SPPG 1.44, EPPG 1.33 & D% 88.
Pearce – 9 Games, MPG 30, APPG 2.22, SPPG 2.33, EPPG 1.33 & D% 86.
Reynolds- 9 Games, MPG 38, APPG 2.11, SPPG 2.89, EPPG 1.33 & D% 93.
Mullen- 4 Games, MPG 26, APPG 3.00, SPPG 3.00, EPPG 0.75 & D% 89.
Roberts- 9 Games, MPG 50, APPG 2.78, SPPG 3.56, EPPG 1.55 & D% 79.
Kelly- 9 Games- MPG 123, APPG 2.22, SPPG 4.11, EPPG 2.78 & D% 80.
Brooks- 9 Games, MPG 46, APPG 2.00, SPPG 2.22, EPPG 1.79 & D% 68.
Wallace- 7 Games, MPG 32, APPG 1.71, SPPG 1.71, EPPG 1.29 & D% 88.
Hodkinson is in this team to do a simple job. He is not there to be an artist, just a tradesman. We have Hayne, Farah and Reynolds for all the pretty stuff. Hodkinson’s job is to run the team around, complete sets by finding the ground with his kicks, and kick goals. This is what is expected of him at the Bulldogs and that’s all we should expect of him at Origin.
Right Prop – Paul Gallen.
This selection requires little explanation. Our Captain plays big minutes, runs a thousand metres, offloads, tackles and punches Nate Myles in the head, done. Some say no, he should be at lock! He will play in the middle and do his thing regardless.
Gallen- 4 Games, MA 67, MPG 142, APPG 1.25, SPPG 6.5, EPPG 0.5 & D% 86.
Woods- 9 Games, MA 58, MPG 142, APPG 0.22, SPPG 2.44, EPPG 1.89 & D% 96.
Mannah- 9 Games, MA 44, MPG 122, APPG 0.00, SPPG 1.44, EPPG 0.55 & D% 96.
Mason- 7 Games, MA 41, MPG 96, APPG 0.14, SPPG 2.00, EPPG 0.14 & D% 94.
Gallen’s defence has been down on his career average of over 90, however he has only played 4 games and he is killing it in attack. Aaron Woods has been superb this year and I have always been a huge supporter of the man. He was disappointing in last year’s series. I think coming off the bench this year will suit him better. He accumulates and wears teams down. He can come in and grind Queensland, after Gallen and Tamou have smashed them early. Mannah and Mason are not in the mix. Mason was a great Origin forward is his prime, those days are long gone.
Hooker – Robbie Farah.
Barring injury, Robbie will most definitely take his place in the team. He is easily the best Hooker in NSW. His form this year has been stellar running more metres than any other Hooker in the competition. His attacking plays per game are also the highest at 3.33.
Farah- 6 Games, MA 80, MPG 91, APPG 3.33, SPPG 4.17, EPPG 1.5 & D% 95.
Ennis- 9 Games, MA 75, MPG 30, APPG 0.44, SPPG 0.78, EPPG 1.33 & D% 93.
Peats- 8 Games, MA 79, MPG 43, APPG 0.63, SPPG 1.00, EPPG 0.5 & D% 91.
Gidley- 9 Games, MA 51, MPG 44, APPG 0.22, SPPG 1.11, EPPG 1.78 & D% 94.
Rein- 9 Games, MA 72, MPG 44, APPG 1.00, SPPG 1.44, EPPG 1.34 & D% 94.
Robbie is the only choice here, no one even comes close.
Left Prop – James Tamou.
I have never been a huge fan of James Tamou, mainly because he is a Kiwi and he should line up for them. The powers that be decided he is a New South Welshman so we are stuck with him. He has been a solid toiler for NSW, during his 5 match run, averaging 41 minutes for 86 metres and 21 tackles at 94%. He is in the team to take the initial heat from the QLD pack. I believe Aiden Tolman might be able to fulfil this role but he lacks size and does not have an offload in his game.
Tamou- 9 Games, MA 49, MPG 133, APPG 0.33, SPPG 2.11, EPPG 0.78 & D% 93.
Fifita- 7 Games, MA 53, MPG 127, APPG 0.14, SPPG 7.71, EPPG 2.58 & D% 93.
Tolman- 9 Games, MA 52, MPG 136, APPG 0.11, SPPG 0.44, EPPG 0.78 & D% 98.
Vaughan- 9 Games, MA 51, MPG 117, APPG 0.44, SPPG 1.89, EPPG 0.56 & D% 96.
Klemmer- 9 Games, MA 20, MPG 83, APPG 0.22, SPPG 2.00, EPPG 0.55 & D% 96.
Paul Vaughan continues to impress in a poor team. David Klemmer is a superstar in waiting. He only averages 20 minutes a game coming off the bench and he does a mountain of work in that short period.
Right Second Row – Boyd Cordner.
Boyd Cordner has been on the rise over the past 18 months and continues to meet all challenges thrown at him. He is currently the form Back Rower for NSW and I believe deserves a spot in the starting side.
Cordner- 9 Games, MA 75, MPG 111, APPG 1.22, SPPG 2.56, EPPG 1.34 & D% 93.
Watmough- 9 Games, MA 63, MPG 99, APPG 0.22, SPPG 3.00, EPPG 1.34 & D% 93.
Scott- 9 Games, MA 77, MPG 73, APPG 1.00, SPPG 4.56, EPPG 1.77 & D% 91.
Hoffman- 9 Games, MA 80, MPG 113, APPG 0.56, SPPG 1.44, EPPG 1.56 & D% 91.
Creagh- 9 Games, MA 69, MPG 110, APPG 0.78, SPPG 1.22, EPPG 1.34 & D% 93.
Anthony Watmough will be in the team, he always does the job for NSW. I have selected him on the bench because he is a tried and tested Origin player and he always makes an impact. Beau Scott could be in line for a recall, he has been in excellent form this year. I personally don’t want him in my team, because he doesn’t do enough work and he never had an impact in Origin.
Left Second Row – Tony Williams.
This selection will polarise opinion. You either love him or hate him. I have always been a fan. He has all the right attributes, except work ethic. If he can improve that he would be sensational. With Birds suspension Williams really comes into consideration and I personally have really enjoyed how he has aimed up this year.
Williams- 9 Games, MA 77, MPG 101, APPG 1.22, SPPG 4.67, EPPG 1.12 & D% 93.
Graham- 9 Games, MA 78, MPG 97, APPG 1.11, SPPG 2.11, EPPG 1.89 & D% 91.
Bird- 9 Games, MA 74, MPG 118, APPG 0.78, SPPG 3.89, EPPG 0.78 & D% 87.
Jackson- 9 Games, MA 64, MPG 80, APPG 0.67, SPPG 1.56, EPPG 1.23 & D% 94.
Wade Graham would make a very handy addition to the team, along with John Sutton. They both have the talent and work rate to make an impact off the bench.
Lock – Trent Merrin.
Trent Merrin needs more minutes in the game. In the 7 Origin games he has played he has only been given 26 minutes a game. He has a huge motor and offloads superbly.
Merrin- 9 Games, MA 66, MPG 147, APPG 0.22, SPPG 3.22, EPPG 1.12 & D% 95.
Fensom- 9 Games, MA 72, MPG 112, APPG 0.13, SPPG 2.63, EPPG 1.25 & D% 98.
Sims- 8 Games, MA 59, MPG 100, APPG 0.25, SPPG 2.25, EPPG 1.88 & D% 93.
Stewart- 6 Games, MA 59, MPG 52, APPG 0.83, SPPG 1.00, EPPG 1.34 & D% 94.
Hinchcliffe- 9 Games, MA 55, MPG 45, APPG 0.11, SPPG 0.67, EPPG 0.78 & D% 97.
Buhrer- 9 Games, MA 47, MPG 82, APPG 0.89, SPPG 1.89, EPPG 0.67 & D% 94.
Fensom is a quality Lock with a supreme work rate. He has been unlucky not to snare a Country jumper. Sims has never met the expectation placed on him and has been stifled by injury. I don’t believe he has done enough to be in this team. They may select Ryan Hoffman in this position but I am not a huge fan, I believe we have much better options.
Interchange:
Aaron Woods.
Aaron’s game has reached a new level this year. He has always had the work rate, but not the attitude to intimidate other forwards. His performance against the Burgess Boys earlier this year was a pivotal moment and may determine whether he is selected or not.
Wade Graham.
Wade Graham has slowly refined his game as a Back Rower in the last few seasons. With Luke Lewis coming back from injury and Greg Birds on suspension, the time is now to make his debut. If the NSW pack wins the middle in the early stages of the game, Wade will be free to cause damage to Queensland’s right edge.
Anthony Watmough.
Proven Origin player averages over 100 metres a game at this level and defends at 90%.
J Sutton.
I don’t think John will be selected but he would be perfect coming off the bench. He has all the skills and with Graham on the bench it gives the Blues allot of versatility.
I have selected my team around big minute powerful forwards who can beat Queensland into submission early. This will create space for Farah, Reynolds and Hayne to work their magic. If the middle is won early, then we bring Woods and Watmough on to grind them down, freeing up Sutton and Graham to run riot. The real team selected won’t look like this, for me, there is always hope.
Go the Blues!!!!.
[Game statistics sourced from www.rugbyleagueproject.org]
[Award statistics sourced from www.rugbyleagueproject.org]
[Andrew Johns Stats sourced from Sports Data’s NRLstats.com; Johnathan Thurston Stats Sourced from Fox Sports.]
[Andrew Johns stats sourced from Sports Data from 173 of 249 games, Johnathan Thurston’s stats sourced from Fox Sports across 249 games = % (total tackles/total attempts displayed as percentage)]
[Andrew Johns stats sourced from Sports Data; Johnathan Thurston’s stats sourced from Fox Sports. Highlighted red text means the data is incomplete. * Numbers have been derived from per game averages times the total games, therefore the figure will not be totally accurate.]
RUGBY LEAGUE STATS 