Johns v Thurston a statistical attempt

On Tuesday Fox Sports released an article attempting to compare Andrew Johns and Johnathan Thurston, by the numbers. The article only compared games, points, awards, titles, etc. In my opinion they could have done a better job. This article will attempt to go a little further.

Comparing these to great Halfbacks is no easy task, as I am not a statistician and do not have access to NRL stats databases. The stats I have managed to find on Andrew Johns are incomplete. The reason for this is the NRL did not start collecting detailed statistics (Line Breaks, Offloads, etc.) until 1998 and in the seasons that followed they increased in detail (Try Assists, Line Break Assists, etc.). Another issue with this comparison is the different stats providers, for example: all the stats I have for Andrew Johns were recorded by the NRL’s old stats provider Sports Data and the stats I have on Johnathan Thurston were recorded by Fox Sports. The reason I have not used Sports Data stats for JT is they are only available up till 2007. This is an issue because different stats providers have been shown to have differences in their records, for example: for the 2007 season Sports Data recorded 31 try assists and 19 offloads for Johnathan Thurston, while Fox Sports recorded 30 and 16 respectively. The issues mentioned above illuminates that this is a flawed attempt to compare the incomparable.

[Game statistics sourced from www.rugbyleagueproject.org]

They have each played 249 first grade games; Joey won 61.8% of games, including 2 premierships for Newcastle, while JT has won 53.8% of games across 2 clubs including 1 premiership. JT has taken part in 8 winning series for Queensland; winning 63.3% of games compared to Joey’s 5 series wins for NSW at 56.5%. As a side note: 16 of Joey’s 23 Origin appearances were at Halfback, while the other 7 were played at Hooker or off the bench. Joey won 87% of games for Australia, with 2 World Cup victories; while JT has won 93.5% of games for Australia with 1 World Cup victory.

[Award statistics sourced from www.rugbyleagueproject.org]

They are equal on top with 3 Dally M Medals a piece, in addition they have taken out 2 Golden Boots. JT has the edge on Dally M positional awards with 6 (3 at Halfback and 3 at 5-8) compared to Joeys 4 at Halfback. Joey claimed a Clive Churchill Medal in 2001, the only major award JT is without.

To this point we have covered all the basic stats that everyone already knows; we will now delve into the nitty gritty, starting with their attacking game.

[Andrew Johns Stats sourced from Sports Data’s NRLstats.com; Johnathan Thurston Stats Sourced from Fox Sports.]

As discussed above the stats I found on Andrew Johns were incomplete, which makes this comparison unfair for both players. We of course have a complete record of Joey’s tries; scoring 80 from his 249 games compared to JT who has crossed the line 81 times from 249 games, a per game strike rate of 0.32 and 0.33 respectively. I only have try assist stats for 147 of Joey’s appearances, where he managed 166 at a strike rate of 1.13 per game. JT has assisted in 259 tries at a strike rate of 1.04 per game. Joey broke the line 107 times in the 173 games that were recorded, a strike rate of 0.62 per game; compared to 149 line breaks made by JT at 0.60 per game. Line Break Assists is the smallest sample I have on Johns as they were only recorded for 81 of his 249 appearances. In that period Joey assisted in 105 line breaks at a rate of 1.30 per game. JT has assisted 268 line breaks at a rate of 1.08 per game. Joey dominated when it came to forty twenties; kicking 16 from the 147 games recorded at 0.11 per game; compared to JT who has only managed 6 from 243 games (couldn’t find stats on a few finals games) at 0.02 per game.

Joey produced 338 offloads in the 173 games that they were recorded at 1.95 per game; compared to JT who has to date produced 232 offloads at 0.93 per game. Joey averaged 60.78 metres per game in the 147 that were recorded; compared to JT who has averaged 63.50 across his career. It’s fair to say that if we had complete stats on Joey’s career his per game averages would slide back towards JT’s numbers; however, how much is unclear as we are missing stats on years where he won a Premiership, a Dally M and a Halfback of the year award.

 [Andrew Johns stats sourced from Sports Data from 173 of 249 games, Johnathan Thurston’s stats sourced from Fox Sports across 249 games = % (total tackles/total attempts displayed as percentage)]

I found Defensive stats for 173 of Joey’s games where he averaged 14.61 tackles per game, missing 2.03 per game. JT‘s has averaged 14.70 tackles per game across his career averaging 3.50 misses. Fox Sports has JT’s effectiveness in defence at 75%; this must include ineffective tackles, which I could not find figures for. To be fair to JT I used the same simple formula that was used for Joey (total tackles made divided by total tackles attempted times 100). Using this simple method Joey made 88% of all tackles attempted compared to JT who has been 81% successful.

When it comes to errors and penalties the stats I found indicate that JT is slightly less disciplined. In the 173 games that errors were recorded, Joey made 213 at 1.23 per game, compared to JT who has made 396 errors at 1.59 per game. Penalties were only recorded for 81 of Joey’s games where he conceded 44 at 0.54 per game, compare to JT who has conceded 156 at 0.63 per game. In addition JT has also been sin binned on 4 occasions. I am not sure if Joey has ever been sent to the bin.

[Andrew Johns stats sourced from Sports Data; Johnathan Thurston’s stats sourced from Fox Sports. Highlighted red text means the data is incomplete. * Numbers have been derived from per game averages times the total games, therefore the figure will not be totally accurate.]

Numbers won’t settle the debate as people either love or hate these two players. From my perspective it has been fantastic watching these two magicians dominate over the years.

Who will replace Jarryd Hayne?

Speculation over who will replace Jarryd Hayne in the Blues line up started the moment he made the decision to switch to the NFL. Early popular opinion had Penrith young gun Matt Moylan in the hot seat. Last week NSW coach Laurie Daley named Josh Dugan, Brett Stewart & Matt Moylan as the main contenders for the Blues custodian role. With only 5 rounds down and 5 to go before the team is announced for the May 27 opener, debate is sure to heat up.

The purpose of this article is to compare purely with statistics Jarryd Hayne’s form after the first 5 rounds in 2014, with: The Blues main Fullback contenders, longshots and the likely Maroon fullbacks. This article will only look at some key areas based on simple statistics that are readily available to the public. It in no way tells the whole story, but should provide some good early season talking points.

 Attack [Attacking Plays Per Game (APPG) = the sum of: Tries, Try Assists, Line Breaks, Line Break Assists, Forced Drop Outs & Forty Twenties; divided by games played. Stats sourced from Fox Sports.]

Matt Moylan has been the most potent attacking Fullback on our list after 5 rounds, averaging 3.6 attacking plays; which is slightly higher than Hayne at the same time last year who averaged 3.4. Moylan comfortably leads this list in try and line break assists with 7 and 6 respectively. James Tedesco has recorded the most tries with 5 and Brett Morris who has been ruled out of Origin this year with a hamstring injury, leads line breaks with 7. Will Hopoate in his new role, has been the least potent Fullback in attack; averaging only 0.4 attacking plays. As a matter of perspective, in form Fullbacks average over 2 attacking play per game and the best average 3 plus. For example Hayne, Slater & Inglis averaged 4.2, 3.0 & 2.4 respectively, during the 2014 regular season.

Run Metres

[Total run metres divided by games played. Stats sourced from Fox Sports.]

What Will Hopoate lacks in attack he makes up for in work ethic; averaging 162 metre per game; the most of all Fullbacks in this list. Hopoate is closely followed by Jack Wighton and Brett Morris with 157 and 153 metres respectively. Hayne averaged 135 at the same time last year; however, he finished the season averaging 178. Brett Stewart has only managed 69 metres per game so far in 2015; 20 fewer than his 2014 average. Stewart is managing less metres then journeyman Kurt Gidley who has returned to the custodian role.

Second Phase

[Second Phase Per Game (SPPG) = sum of: Offloads & Tackle Busts divided by games played. Stats sourced from Fox Sports.]

Brett Morris and James Tedesco lead the way in second phase plays so far in 2015 with 7.3 and 6.6 per game respectively. Tedesco has broken the most tackles with 30 and Morris has the most offloads at 6. Josh Dugan and Lachlan Coote have also proved difficult to tackle; averaging 5 a piece. Brett Stewart sits at the bottom in this area; a direct reflection of his run metres. He has only managed 1.5 per game; with a total of 3 tackle busts and 3 offloads. Hayne averaged 6.2 per game after 5 rounds; finishing the season averaging over 7. Greg Inglis and Billy Slater are both down in these areas compared to last year; both averaged close to 5 at the end of the 2014 regular season.

Defence

[Total tackles divided by attempted tackles, displayed as percentage. Stats sourced from Fox Sports.]

Kurt Gidley at 98% effective in defence is technically the best defensive Fullback so far in 2015; however, his numbers have been greatly inflated, due to not exclusively playing Fullback. Gidley has already made more tackles then most fullbacks over the course of the 2014 season. For this reason we will exclude him. Josh Dugan at 92% and Will Hopoate at 91% are the best ‘true’ defensive Fullbacks in this list. Greg Inglis at 78% is well down on last year where he defended at 90%; the best of all any Fullback. Inglis only needs to miss more tackle to equal last year’s total. Matt Moylan is the worst of the contenders at 69% effective, down from 80% in 2014. Hayne only managed to be 71% effective throughout the 2014 season which was well down on his career average of 80%. This statistic provides the least insight in my opinion for Fullbacks, because they make so few tackles. It struggles to be truly representative of their defensive ability.

Errors and Penalties

[Errors & Penalties Per Game = the sum of: Errors & Penalties, divided by games played. Stats sourced from Sports Mate League Live.]

Josh Dugan and Jack Wighton have been the least disciplined in 2015 averaging 2.3 errors and penalties. Moylan, Tedesco and Wighton have each produced 8 errors; Dugan, Moylan and Hopoate have each conceded 2 penalties. Hayne averaged 1.2 at this point last season, but finished the season averaging 2.0. Greg Inglis continues to be one of the most disciplined fullbacks; only producing 0.4 per errors & penalties per game; slightly better than 2014 where he averaged 0.71.

The season is young and the debate will continue to rage; the potentials mentioned above still have plenty of time to step up, and show the selectors they have what it takes to succeed in Rugby League’s toughest contest. As I am only a fan of stats and not a statistician, it is hard to know what, if anything these simple comparisons mean; however, it is always nice to throw some numbers around in a debate.

2014 DALLY M

 

With only one and a half rounds to go the race for the Dally M has hotted up. At this point there appears to be a three main contenders, consisting of Johnathan Thurston, Jarryd Hayne & Sam Burgess. Thurston (2005 & 2007) & Hayne (2009) have previously been crowned the NRL’s best player, while Same Burgess has history against him. The last Forward other then a Hooker to win the Dally M was Gavin Miller in 1988 and 1989. Despite leading the Dally M points after 16 rounds, it appears going by predictions that Ben Hunt has dropped out of the top three, however after a stunning performance last night, starring in a win over the Dragons, he could have roared back into contention. 

Sam Burgess put on a Match winning performance Thursday night and has done him self no harm in breaking the drought of running forwards winning the Dally M. 

Below I have added a comparison between Johnathan Thurston’s and Jarryd Hayne’s Dally M winning years compared to 2014 and it indicates that both man are in similar form to when they were crowned the games best. 

                                     If I was a betting man I would be putting my money on either JT or Jarryd Hayne to take out the title of the games best in 2014. They each have two games to go and each performance is crucial. 

For more Rugby League Stats check out our Facebook page;

https://www.facebook.com/RLStats

 

 

 

Terry Campese Then and Now

Terry Campese was told this week that he was no longer guaranteed a spot in first grade. He now seems destined to play out his contract for Mounties in NSW Cup or perhaps, or perhaps he may receive an offer from Super League, Canberra however may not be interested in topping up his wage. Since the initial injury sustained in the 2010 finals series, the one time Australian & NSW pivot has failed to recapture the stellar form he displayed from 2008 to 2010. He has only managed 43 games in the past 4 seasons, as opposed to the 87 in the 4 seasons prior to his string of injuries. Of the 43 games he has lined up for since the 2010 injury, he has only seen 17 victories at 39.5%, as opposed to the 47% success rate between 2008-2010, where Canberra made the finals on 2 occasions (2008 & 2010). 

Terry’s attacking stats since 2010 have seen a reduction in all areas, most noticably his running game.  Prior to the injury Terry was running on average 6 times a game for 50 metres, from 2011 onwards he has only been running the ball slightly over 2 times a game for under 20 metres. Terry’s diminished running game has had a flow on effect to all other areas of his game, his ability to produce second phase plays has dropped dramatically. Between 2008-10 Campese would on average offload 1.4 times a game and break 2.3 tackles. Since 2010 he has only managed 0.4 offloads per game and 0.7 tackle breaks. 

Terry’s defence has also suffered post injury, possibly due to a reduced ability to move laterally fast enough in response to changing attack. Between 2008-10, he averaged 18.5 tackles per game, only missing 1.8 on average, a success rate of 91%. This percentage was better then many back rowers playing the game and was on par with John Sutton. Since the injury Terry has averaged 16.3 tackles per game missing 2.1 on average, a success rate of 88%. This percentage is still high for a half, but is statistically significant.

Above and below are comparisons of regular season form between Cooper Cronk and Terry Campese from 2008 to 2010. These comparisons help to illustrate the kind of player Terry Campese was and only begs the question how good could he have been if not for a horrible string of injuries. Keep in mind these are only the raw numbers of a Five Eighth and Halfback, but both where the dominant halves for their club during this period. During this period Cooper only out pointed Terry in Try Assists, Errors and Penalties. Terry averaged more Try’s, Line Breaks, Line Break Assists, Forty Twenties, Forced Drop Outs, Offloads, Tackle Busts, he missed fewer tackles and had a higher defensive success rate. 

Injury has robbed Terry Campese the opportunity to ever fulfil his full potential. Frustrated Canberra fans have had enough of losing and many blame Terry for not reaching his former heights and for taking up so much of the Salary cap, however it is not his fault Canberra decided to sign him on such a lucrative deal after he sustained the devastating injury, that mistake is on the Raiders administration. Lets hope he can see out the rest of his career injury free, enjoying what time on the paddock he has left. 

For more Rugby League Stats please check out the Facebook page:

https://www.facebook.com/RLStats

JARRYD HAYNE’S REGULAR SEASON FORM SINCE 2009

This is a quick breakdown of Jarryd Hayne’s statistics from 2009 to the present. His worst year was was 2013 under Ricky Stuart. 

Check out our Facebook page for more Rugby League Stats:

https://www.facebook.com/RLStats

Fringe NRL halves making it in the Super League

I have collated the 2014 season statistics of 12 ex NRL halves who are currently playing in the English Super League.

NRL Halves make the move to England for various reason, like Travis Burns who made the move after a number of on field disciplinary issues or Sam Williams and Josh Drinkwater who made the move due to a lack of opportunities. Some try to return to the NRL, but few are successful, as was the case with Daniel Holdsworth, Michael Dobson and Michael Witt . It is rare for a top class NRL half to make the move, unless he is squeezed out due to salary cap, as Brett Finch was after the Melbourne salary cap scandal, or they may make the move towards the end of their career.

Travis Burns:

Played 127 NRL games for 3 clubs. Burns made the switch to Super League in 2013 after lengthy suspensions in 2012. He has lined up for Hull KR 23 times in 2014 and leads our list in try assists with 19, he also has the most offloads with 34 and forty twenties with 4. He has made the most tackles as well as missed the most of all other players on this list, making 406 tackles from 458 attempts at 88% successful. Burns has continued his bad boy reputation having spent 10 minutes in the bin twice in 2014.

Rangi Chase:

Played 32 NRL games for 2 clubs. Chase made the switch to Super League in 2009 after a lack of opportunities in the NRL. He has lined up for Salford 19 times in 2014 and leads this list in line breaks with 16,  tackle breaks with 73, carries with 291, metres with 1675, average metres with 88 per game and errors with 27. He is second in tries (6), try assists (18), forty twenties (3), offloads (31) and missed tackles (49). He is the most potent attacking half on the list averaging 2.16 Attacking Plays Per Game (APPG), followed by Blake Green (2.08 APPG), he is also the most active second phase half on our list averaging 5.47 SPPG, followed by Travis Burns (4.61 SPPG). Chase is the least disciplined half, with a defensive percentage of 83%, and an average of 2.16 Errors/Penalties Per Game (EPPG).

Blake Green:

Played 43 NRL games for 3 clubs and will make a comeback to the NRL in 2015 with the Melbourne Storm. He has only lined up 12 times for Wigan in 2014 and has amassed 5 tries, 13 try assists and 7 line breaks, averaging 2.08 APPG. He is solid in all areas of the game, averaging 3.17 SPPG, 92% in defence, has averaged 62 run metres per game and only 1.17 EPPG. If anyone can help in transition back to the NRL, Craig Bellamy can.

Josh Drinkwater:

Played 4 NRL games for the Saint George Dragons in 2013. He impressed in NYC leading the competition in try assists in 2012. He struggled to establish himself and was soon pushed back in the pecking order once Sam Williams another member of our list and Gareth Widdop where signed by the Dragons. He has lined up 20 times for the winless London Broncos in 2014 and has scored 2 tries, set up 11 and broke the line 5 times. He has conceded the most penalties with 19 and has been solid in defence (87% successful).

Lance Hohaia:

Played 185 NRL games for the NZ Warriors. Hohaia mad the move in 2012 to Saint Helens. He has lined up 16 times in 2014 and leads our list in tries with 7. Hohaia has set up 11 tries and cracked the line on 10 occasions. He is the most effective defender on our list at 94% successful. Hohaia was a solid NRL player and has moved to England to finish off his career.

Luke Walsh:

Played 120 NRL games for 2 clubs.  Walsh moved to the Super League in 2014 after he was pushed out of Penrith. He was underrated in the NRL averaging 2.7 Attacking Plays Per Game (APPG), Which includes line break assists and forced drop out, 2 statistics the Super League do not record. He has lined up 16 times for ladder leading Saint Helens and has scored 5 tries, set up 11, cracked the line 9 times and kicked 2 forty twenties, for an average of 1.69 APPG. He has been solid in defence at 85% and averaged over 60 run metres per game, which is 3 times as much as he did last year in the NRL.

Kris Keating:

Played 88 games in the NRL for 2 clubs including 2 grand final losses. He made the move to the Super League in 2014 after he was pushed out by Trent Hodkinson. Keating was one of the least potent attacking halves in the NRL, only averaging 1.33 APPG. He has lined up 20 times for Hull KR in 2014, scoring 5 tries, set up 10 and cracked the line 7 times. He has averaged over 90% in defence and gives away on average the fewest Errors/Penalties Per Game (EPPG) at 0.90.

Tim Smith:

Played 90 NRL games for 2 clubs. Smith was touted as the next big thing after he set up 40 tries in his debut season, earning the rookie of the year award. His NRL career fell apart after a string over alcohol related incidents, one of which involved the punching of the Australian Cricket captain Michael Clarke. He has had two stints in the Super League playing for 3 different clubs. He has only played 8 games for Wakefield in 2014, scoring 2 tries, setting up 9 and cracking the line 3 times. He is the worst second phase half on our list only averaging 1.13 SPPG, comprising of 8 tackle busts and 1 offload. He has been solid in defence at 91%.

Pita Godinet:

Played 18 NRL games for the NZ Warriors over 3 years and could never maintain a starting role. He made the move to Wakefield in 2014. He has lined up 19 times in 2014 and has scored 5 tries, set up 9 and broke the line 15 times. He averages 88% in defence and has the largest average carry of any member on our list, averaging 6.62 metres per carry.

Sam Williams:

Played 46 NRL games for 2 clubs and was pushed out of Saint George after Benji Marshall was signed. Williams was a solid half in the NRL averaging over 2 APPG and defended at 85%. He has lined up 6 timed for Catalans in 2014, setting up 5 tries and breaking the line once, he is the third best second phase half on this list, averaging 3.33 SPPG. Williams has been good in defence at 90% and is running for almost 60 metres a game. There is talk that he may be heading back to the NRL in 2015.

Jacob Miller:

Played 9 NRL games for the West Tigers and won a NYC premiership in 2012. He was also touted as the next big thing, but struggled at NRL level. He made the move to Hull FC mid way through 2013 after the emergence of Luke Brooks. He has lined up 9 times in 2014 and has produced meagre results in attack. He is the least potent half in attack on our list only averaging 0.78 APPG. Miller also averages the fewest run metres of any half on the list, at only 40 per game.

Jordan Rankin:

Played 17 NRL games for the Gold Coast Titans over 6 seasons. Rankin moved to Hull FC in 2014 and has had a solid first season. He has lined up 18 times in 2014 and has scored 9 tries, set up 8 and busted the line 8 times. He has busted 32 tackles, defended at 93% and averaged 58 run metres per game.

Most of these halves will never see the NRL again and any that do will most likely be on the Fringe. It will be interesting to see how Blake Green goes next year alongside some of the finest players to ever play the game.

For more Rugby League Stats please check out our Facebook page:

https://www.facebook.com/RLStats