Terry Campese Then and Now

Terry Campese was told this week that he was no longer guaranteed a spot in first grade. He now seems destined to play out his contract for Mounties in NSW Cup or perhaps, or perhaps he may receive an offer from Super League, Canberra however may not be interested in topping up his wage. Since the initial injury sustained in the 2010 finals series, the one time Australian & NSW pivot has failed to recapture the stellar form he displayed from 2008 to 2010. He has only managed 43 games in the past 4 seasons, as opposed to the 87 in the 4 seasons prior to his string of injuries. Of the 43 games he has lined up for since the 2010 injury, he has only seen 17 victories at 39.5%, as opposed to the 47% success rate between 2008-2010, where Canberra made the finals on 2 occasions (2008 & 2010). 

Terry’s attacking stats since 2010 have seen a reduction in all areas, most noticably his running game.  Prior to the injury Terry was running on average 6 times a game for 50 metres, from 2011 onwards he has only been running the ball slightly over 2 times a game for under 20 metres. Terry’s diminished running game has had a flow on effect to all other areas of his game, his ability to produce second phase plays has dropped dramatically. Between 2008-10 Campese would on average offload 1.4 times a game and break 2.3 tackles. Since 2010 he has only managed 0.4 offloads per game and 0.7 tackle breaks. 

Terry’s defence has also suffered post injury, possibly due to a reduced ability to move laterally fast enough in response to changing attack. Between 2008-10, he averaged 18.5 tackles per game, only missing 1.8 on average, a success rate of 91%. This percentage was better then many back rowers playing the game and was on par with John Sutton. Since the injury Terry has averaged 16.3 tackles per game missing 2.1 on average, a success rate of 88%. This percentage is still high for a half, but is statistically significant.

Above and below are comparisons of regular season form between Cooper Cronk and Terry Campese from 2008 to 2010. These comparisons help to illustrate the kind of player Terry Campese was and only begs the question how good could he have been if not for a horrible string of injuries. Keep in mind these are only the raw numbers of a Five Eighth and Halfback, but both where the dominant halves for their club during this period. During this period Cooper only out pointed Terry in Try Assists, Errors and Penalties. Terry averaged more Try’s, Line Breaks, Line Break Assists, Forty Twenties, Forced Drop Outs, Offloads, Tackle Busts, he missed fewer tackles and had a higher defensive success rate. 

Injury has robbed Terry Campese the opportunity to ever fulfil his full potential. Frustrated Canberra fans have had enough of losing and many blame Terry for not reaching his former heights and for taking up so much of the Salary cap, however it is not his fault Canberra decided to sign him on such a lucrative deal after he sustained the devastating injury, that mistake is on the Raiders administration. Lets hope he can see out the rest of his career injury free, enjoying what time on the paddock he has left. 

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JARRYD HAYNE’S REGULAR SEASON FORM SINCE 2009

This is a quick breakdown of Jarryd Hayne’s statistics from 2009 to the present. His worst year was was 2013 under Ricky Stuart. 

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Reliance on the spine.

 

Some claim the “Spine” (1,6,7,9) of a football team is the key to a premiership, others would argue that forwards, and defence win games. I would say its a combination of all, as well as a special team cohesion not shown by the numbers. For example Manly sit on top of the ladder, with the 4th most attacking plays, 9th most metres, and the 10th best defensive percentage. Compared to the Cowboys who sit 12th, with the 5th most attacking plays, 3rd most metres, and the 3nd best defensive percentage. If it was purely mathematical, Manly would not would not be in such a lofty position. Moving on.

The purpose of this article is to rank a teams reliance on their spine in attack. My method which was basic, and only focusing on the statistics available, was to add up all the Tries, Try Assists, Line Breaks, Line Break Assists, Forced Drop Outs, and 40/20s that have been notched up by a teams Fullback, Five Eighth, Halfback, and Hooker (including interchange Hooker). I would then divide this figure by the number of games played by the team to receive a number. This numbers represents the average number of “attacking plays per game” a spine had produced. I would then do the same for the entire team to get a total team “attacking plays per game”. I then used these two figures to calculate what percentage of attacking plays the teams spine had performed of the total. For example the Cowboys relied on their spine for 57.95% of the total attacking plays while the Roosters only relied on their spine for 41.87% of the total.

The problem with this method is that I have not factored in injuries during the game, and swapping of position, such as the Roosters routinely do with their Fullbacks. This effective should be minimal as Anthony Minichiello and RTS have only have a difference on 3 attacking plays, so hopefully it evens out.

The teams are listed below from highest reliance on the spine to lowest. I have also added in a number of other figures, for comparison. Its hard to know if such statistics have any use. Sometimes they confirm exactly what you want them to. For example the Bulldog’s spine have the 14th most attacking plays, and the team has the 12th most, which is not spectacular for a team coming 3rd, but they have the most metres by far, and the second best defensive percentage. These figures seem to confirm that the Bulldogs success belongs to their Forward pack and not their spine. However such numbers do not take into account the Hooker’s control of the ruck, or the Halves direction during play. Which are huge factors in winning football games. Other times stats make no sense at all. The Cowboys for example tick every statistical box of a top eight team, and yet they sit outside the top eight. Perhaps it is over reliance on their spine. I am not sure.

 

1. Cowboys (57.95%)                                                                                  

Pos 12th, 7 wins, 9 losses.

1st in spine attacking plays.

5th in total attacking plays.

All run metres 23751 (3rd)

Defensive percentage 92.81 (2nd)

The Cowboys have used 8 players in their spine out of a total of 29 total in 2014.

 

2. Storm (55.73%)

Pos 8th, 8 wins, 8 losses.

2nd in spine attacking plays.

6th in total attacking plays.

All run metres 23389 (7th)

Defensive percentage 91.99 (7th)

The storm have used 8 players in their spine out of a total of 27 total in 2014.

 

3. Panthers (55.42%)

Pos 2nd, 11 wins, 5 losses.

4th in spine attacking plays.

10th in total attacking plays.

All run metres 23798 (2nd)

Defensive percentage 90.58 (12th)

The Panthers have used 7 players in their spine out of a total of 25 total in 2014.

 

4. Tigers (54.29%)

Pos 10th, 8 wins, 8 losses.

10th* in spine attacking plays.

14th in total attacking plays.

All run metres 22726 (13th)

Defensive percentage 89.87 (16th)

The Tigers have used 8 players in their spine out of 27 total in 2014.

 

5. Raiders (53.44%)

Pos 15th, 5 wins, 11 losses.

5th in spine attacking plays.

9th in total attacking plays.

All run metres 22115 (16th)

Defensive percentage 91.71 (8th)

The Raiders have used 8 players in their spine out of 26 total in 2014.

 

6. Sharks (53.18%)

Pos 16th, 4 wins, 12 losses.

15th in spine attacking plays.

15th in total attacking plays.

All run metres 22214 (15th)

Defensive percentage 92.33 (5th)

The Sharks have used 13 players in their spine out of 29 total in 2014.

 

7. Rabbitohs (50.20%)

Pos 4th, 9 wins, 7 losses.

8th in spine attacking plays.

7th in total attacking plays.

All run metres 22994 (10th)

Defensive percentage 94.19 (1st)

The Rabbitohs have used 9 players in their spine out of 27 total in 2014.

 

8. Knights (50.00%)

Pos 14th, 5 wins, 11 losses.

13th in spine attacking plays.

13th in total attacking plays.

All run metres 23486 (6th)

Defensive percentage 90.42 (13th)

The Knights have used 8 players in their spine out of 27 total in 2014.

 

9. Titans (48.21)

Pos 13th, 7 wins, 9 losses.

16th in spine attacking plays.

16th in total attacking plays.

All run metres 22855 (12th)

Defensive percentage 90.42 (15th)

The Titans have used 11 players in their spine out of 29 total in 2014.

 

10. Dragons (47.88%)

Pos 9th, 8 wins, 8 losses.

12th in spine attacking plays.

11th in total attacking plays.

All run metres 22954 (11th)

Defensive percentage 92.58 (4th)

The Dragons have used 9 players in their spine out of 27 total in 2014.

 

11. Sea Eagles (46.43%)

Pos 1st, 11 wins, 5 losses.

6th in spine attacking plays.

4th in total attacking plays.

All run metres 23071 (9th)

Defensive percentage 91.65 (10th)

The Sea Eagles have used 7 players in their spine out of 26 total in 2014.

 

12. Warriors (45.66%)

Pos 6th, 9 wins, 7 losses.

3rd in spine attacking plays.

1st in total attacking plays.

All run metres 23638 (5th)

Defensive percentage 91.50 (11th)

The Warriors have used 6 players in their spine out of 28 total in 2014.

 

13. Eels (45.55%)

Pos 11th, 8 wins, 8 losses.

7th in spine attacking plays.

3rd in total attacking plays.

All run metres 22610 (14th)

Defensive percentage 90.39 (14th)

The Eels have used 7 players in their spine out of 29 total in 2014.

 

14. Broncos (45.24%)

Pos 7th, 8 wins, 8 losses.

10th* in spine attacking plays.

8th in total attacking plays.

All run metres 23671 (4th)

Defensive percentage 91.66 (9th)

The Broncos have used 5 players in their spine out of 25 total in 2014.

 

15. Bulldogs (42.73%)

Pos 3rd, 11 wins, 5 losses.

14th in spine attacking plays.

12th in total attacking plays.

All run metres 25007 (1st)

Defensive percentage 92.92 (2nd)

The Bulldogs have used 10 players in their spine out of 26 total in 2014.

 

16. Roosters (41.87%)

Pos 5th, 9 wins, 7 losses.

9th in spine attacking plays.

2nd in total attacking plays.

All run metres 23230 (8th)

Defensive percentage 92.08 (6th)

The Roosters have used 7 players in their spine out of 25 total in 2014.

 

If nothing else all these numbers provide interesting talking points.

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