State of Origin Game 1 Comparison

Trying to provide a meaningful matchup of two teams is no easy task; especially for someone who isn’t a statistician. I shall do my best anyway. As expected the Maroons average age is greater than that of the blues. There is little difference in height and weight; with the average Maroon towering above their Blues opponent by 0.6cm. The Blues have a slight advantage in the weigh in. The first disparity becomes apparent in the Origin experience department, with Queenslanders averaging twice as many origins games per player (14.6 to 6.8). The Maroons squad has suffered fewer disruptions on the park in 2016; the only man to have missed any game time this year is Corey Oates; who missed one game earlier in the season. The Blues by comparison have missed 27 games this year due to injury and suspension. In other words Queenslander’s have participated in 99% of possible games this year compared to the New South Welshman who have only played 85%.

Attack

The following stats have been derived from 2016 season totals and adjusted to try and reflect what could possibly be produced in a single game performance per team; it is far from perfect, but it might reveal some interesting talking points. What I mean by adjustment is when the stats are pooled together and averaged they won’t reflect what is possible in a single team performance. For example NSW players have played 26 less games then QLD players, therefore, there will be a discrepancy between the two teams. Another area that requires adjusting is the total minutes available per game. For example: when the averaged minutes played per player for each team are summed into team totals, the Blues squad average 1190 minutes per game and the Maroons average 1203; however, there is only 1040 available playing minutes in an 80 minute game (13 X 80 = 1040). To adjust these two factors I broke both squads into 2 groups: the backs (1-7 and 9 assuming both Hookers will play 80 minutes) and the forwards (8, 10-17). I assumed that all the backs would play 80 minutes; giving them 640 of the 1040 available minutes. The forwards would have to share the remaining 400 minutes between the 9 of them. All categories were adjusted to reflect the maximum possible games that could have been played this season, as well as the maximum possible minutes available per game. A good example is average metres per game. If you summed the average metres per game of each NSW player you end up with 2013.5 total metres per game; which is not realistic because to get that figure there needs to be an additional 150 playing minutes per game. So when adjusted for maximal games and possible minutes the 2013 metre figure comes down to 1680 metres per game. That figure is still high for an average team, but this is a rep team and if NSW has anything it is metre eating forwards. All the figures below have had the same adjustment applied to them.

I have done this comparison for a number of years and it has always looked pretty similar. NSW tend to have the advantage in metres per game, as well as offloads and often tackle breaks; Queensland tend to be on top in every other attacking category, especially forced drop outs. This year that single figure has gone the way of NSW (2.9 to 2.6). Forcing repeat sets has been lacking for NSW year in year out. For example the year James Maloney and Mitchell Pearce were selected to play for NSW they had accumulated the fewest repeat sets of any halves combination in the NRL up until that point of the season. They did go on to win the competition that season so… make of that what you will. The addition of Adam Reynolds, who has 8 repeats from 6 games in 2016, gives the Blues a pressure building weapon that they have sorely missed.

Defence

The adjustments were also applied to the defensive and discipline statistics below and they too reveal a pattern that I have seen over the last few years; the Maroons tend to average more tackles, miss fewer, and produce fewer errors/penalties. The physical destruction of the Blues in last years decider was built on the back of a negative mindset that the Blues would lose the penalty count regardless; which, as we all witnessed, lead to one dumb grubby decision after another, which ultimately lead to the their systematic slaughter at the hands of an experienced professional Maroons team. So with that being said penalties and errors could hurt NSW again.

A Broader Comparison

Over the years I have tried to find ways to compare teams on the whole and it has proven difficult, because the NRL is notoriously bad a releasing useful statistics. Below is a few statistics I use to compare how players. APPG = Attacking Plays Per Game which is the sum of Tries, Try Assists, Line Breaks, Line Break Assists, Forty Twenties and Forced Drop Outs, divided by total games; SPPG = Second Phase Per Game, which is the sum of Offloads and Tackle Breaks, divided by total games and EPPG = Errors Penalties Per Game, Which is as the name suggest the sum of Errors and Penalties divided by total games. Make of them what you will.

The final figure WC is a new one I have been playing with to try and compare the whole team’s performance. WC stands for Weighted Contribution and it is a similar points system to Super Coach: however, every statistical category has been given a weighting on top of the points given, or taken away for each action. I have determined the weighting by going through 10 seasons of NRL team statistics and recording how often the top 8 teams in each category actually finished in the top 8 at the end of the season. The weighting or multiplication factor produced was from 0 to 1. For example over the 10 seasons 72% of the top Try scoring teams finished in the top 8; compared to offloads where only 47% of the top Offloading teams finished in the top 8. So in the final calculation Tries received a higher weighting then Offloads. So as in Super Coach each Try is worth 17 points and then when the multiplication factor of 0.7 is applied the Try is actually worth 11.9 points. The same applied to Offloads, each being worth 4 points and when the factor of 0.45 applied its worth drops just under 2 points. This process has been applied to all catagories and then added together. Another deviation from the Super Coach system is Metres and Runs have been included instead of 2 points per Hit Up greater than 8 metres and 1 point for less than 8 metres. Points taken away for errors and penalties have also increased, because I believe they are not appropriately weighted by Super Coach who only minus 2 points per Error and Penalty. I tested the figure against 10 NRL seasons to see how often the top 8 highest scoring teams finished in the end of season top 8 and roughly 75% of the top scoring teams finished in the top eight; not perfect, but not bad, there are allot of ways the figure can be improved. Using the WC figure QLD come out slightly ahead 441 to NSW 428. Let’s hope last year’s flogging was merely an anomaly and we get the contest Origin deserves.

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Who will replace Jarryd Hayne?

Speculation over who will replace Jarryd Hayne in the Blues line up started the moment he made the decision to switch to the NFL. Early popular opinion had Penrith young gun Matt Moylan in the hot seat. Last week NSW coach Laurie Daley named Josh Dugan, Brett Stewart & Matt Moylan as the main contenders for the Blues custodian role. With only 5 rounds down and 5 to go before the team is announced for the May 27 opener, debate is sure to heat up.

The purpose of this article is to compare purely with statistics Jarryd Hayne’s form after the first 5 rounds in 2014, with: The Blues main Fullback contenders, longshots and the likely Maroon fullbacks. This article will only look at some key areas based on simple statistics that are readily available to the public. It in no way tells the whole story, but should provide some good early season talking points.

 Attack [Attacking Plays Per Game (APPG) = the sum of: Tries, Try Assists, Line Breaks, Line Break Assists, Forced Drop Outs & Forty Twenties; divided by games played. Stats sourced from Fox Sports.]

Matt Moylan has been the most potent attacking Fullback on our list after 5 rounds, averaging 3.6 attacking plays; which is slightly higher than Hayne at the same time last year who averaged 3.4. Moylan comfortably leads this list in try and line break assists with 7 and 6 respectively. James Tedesco has recorded the most tries with 5 and Brett Morris who has been ruled out of Origin this year with a hamstring injury, leads line breaks with 7. Will Hopoate in his new role, has been the least potent Fullback in attack; averaging only 0.4 attacking plays. As a matter of perspective, in form Fullbacks average over 2 attacking play per game and the best average 3 plus. For example Hayne, Slater & Inglis averaged 4.2, 3.0 & 2.4 respectively, during the 2014 regular season.

Run Metres

[Total run metres divided by games played. Stats sourced from Fox Sports.]

What Will Hopoate lacks in attack he makes up for in work ethic; averaging 162 metre per game; the most of all Fullbacks in this list. Hopoate is closely followed by Jack Wighton and Brett Morris with 157 and 153 metres respectively. Hayne averaged 135 at the same time last year; however, he finished the season averaging 178. Brett Stewart has only managed 69 metres per game so far in 2015; 20 fewer than his 2014 average. Stewart is managing less metres then journeyman Kurt Gidley who has returned to the custodian role.

Second Phase

[Second Phase Per Game (SPPG) = sum of: Offloads & Tackle Busts divided by games played. Stats sourced from Fox Sports.]

Brett Morris and James Tedesco lead the way in second phase plays so far in 2015 with 7.3 and 6.6 per game respectively. Tedesco has broken the most tackles with 30 and Morris has the most offloads at 6. Josh Dugan and Lachlan Coote have also proved difficult to tackle; averaging 5 a piece. Brett Stewart sits at the bottom in this area; a direct reflection of his run metres. He has only managed 1.5 per game; with a total of 3 tackle busts and 3 offloads. Hayne averaged 6.2 per game after 5 rounds; finishing the season averaging over 7. Greg Inglis and Billy Slater are both down in these areas compared to last year; both averaged close to 5 at the end of the 2014 regular season.

Defence

[Total tackles divided by attempted tackles, displayed as percentage. Stats sourced from Fox Sports.]

Kurt Gidley at 98% effective in defence is technically the best defensive Fullback so far in 2015; however, his numbers have been greatly inflated, due to not exclusively playing Fullback. Gidley has already made more tackles then most fullbacks over the course of the 2014 season. For this reason we will exclude him. Josh Dugan at 92% and Will Hopoate at 91% are the best ‘true’ defensive Fullbacks in this list. Greg Inglis at 78% is well down on last year where he defended at 90%; the best of all any Fullback. Inglis only needs to miss more tackle to equal last year’s total. Matt Moylan is the worst of the contenders at 69% effective, down from 80% in 2014. Hayne only managed to be 71% effective throughout the 2014 season which was well down on his career average of 80%. This statistic provides the least insight in my opinion for Fullbacks, because they make so few tackles. It struggles to be truly representative of their defensive ability.

Errors and Penalties

[Errors & Penalties Per Game = the sum of: Errors & Penalties, divided by games played. Stats sourced from Sports Mate League Live.]

Josh Dugan and Jack Wighton have been the least disciplined in 2015 averaging 2.3 errors and penalties. Moylan, Tedesco and Wighton have each produced 8 errors; Dugan, Moylan and Hopoate have each conceded 2 penalties. Hayne averaged 1.2 at this point last season, but finished the season averaging 2.0. Greg Inglis continues to be one of the most disciplined fullbacks; only producing 0.4 per errors & penalties per game; slightly better than 2014 where he averaged 0.71.

The season is young and the debate will continue to rage; the potentials mentioned above still have plenty of time to step up, and show the selectors they have what it takes to succeed in Rugby League’s toughest contest. As I am only a fan of stats and not a statistician, it is hard to know what, if anything these simple comparisons mean; however, it is always nice to throw some numbers around in a debate.

2014 NRL Regular Season Player Statistics

I have not included all players from 2014.

Fullbacks

Wings

Centres

Five Eighths

Halfbacks

Props

Hookers

Second Rows

Locks

Utilities

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2014 NRL Finals

After 26 rounds the final series is upon us. 8 teams remain in the hunt to be crowned 2014 NRL champions. Since the conclusion of the bye period in round 18, the Sydney Roosters and North Queensland Cowboys have racked up 7 wins from 8 games, a spectacular run of form to take into the finals series. Souths and Melbourne have won 6 from 8, Manly have won 5 from 8, Penrith and Brisbane have won 4 from 8 and out of form Canterbury have only managed 2 wins from 8.

The Sydney Roosters swooped in under the radar and stole the minor premiership from Manly in the last round. Looking at this seasons collated statistics it is clear how they managed this. The Roosters finished the regular season with the most points (615), the best differential (230), most tackles (7384 at 307 per game), tries (106) and line breaks (137). They had the second highest success rate in defence (93.13%), just slightly behind Souths (93.83%) and produced the second most attacking plays per game (18.13 APPG), second only to the Warriors (18.58 APPG).  South Sydney conceded the fewest points (361), missed the fewest tackles (465) and as stated above had the highest defensive success rate of any team in the regular season. They also produced 711 tackle breaks, the most of any team. The Cowboys finished the regular season with the most try assists (86), metres (35606 at 1483 per game),  while Melbourne forced more drop outs then any other team (50)

Of the 8 teams remaining Manly produce the fewest metres per game (1346), Penrith have the poorest defensive success rate (91.05%),  Canterbury produced the fewest tries (76), try assists (56) line breaks (67), leading to a top 8 low of 13.83 attacking plays per game. Brisbane produce the least second phase (combination of offloads and tackle busts) per game at 33.25 SPPG compared to Penrith who produce 38.17 SPPG.  The Roosters produce the most errors and penalties per game at 18.88 EPPG, while Brisbane have produced the fewest at 16.50 EPPG.

The comparisons below have been collated only from players who have been selected to play in week one of the finals. The Roosters are down on metres with the loss of Dylan Napa and Aiden Guerra to suspension. Manly and Penrith are struggling with their long list of injuries, while Souths, North Queensland and Melbourne look in very good shape coming into the weekend.

With home ground advantage and 6 wins from their past 8 games, the Roosters look the goods to beat Penrith. They lead in almost every aspect of the game.

Going purely by statistics and recent form manly look in real trouble against Souths, who have been in red hot form, despite last weeks loss to the Roosters. Adam Reynolds return should provide them with direction. However you can never write Manly off.

Home ground advantage and JT playing his best footy since 2007, this game is the Cowboys to lose.

If Cameron Smith recovers from a ankle injury and takes the field it may just seal Canterbury’s fate. Melbourne have won 6 of their last 8 while the dogs have only managed 2 from their last 8.

The 8 remaining teams Halfbacks shape as the game breakers in the 2014 finals series.

Ben Hunt has the  most tries (13), line breaks (23), tackle busts (61), run metres (1232), kicks (287), kick metres (7758) and has produced the most missed tackles (61). JT leads the way in try assists (33), line break assists (25), forced drop outs (21), attacking plays per game (4.55), runs (140), he produces the fewest kick metres (254 per game) and has produced the most errors (31). DCE has produced the most offloads (37), run metres per game (57.48) and averages the most second phase per game (3.90), he has forced the fewest dropouts (9), kicks (200), he has conceded the most penalties (14) and produces more errors and penalties then any other halfback on the list (2.05 a game) Adam Reynolds is the best defensive halfback having made 453 tackles from 489 attempts at 92.64% successful, Jamie Soward is the worst, having made 217 from 282 attempts at 76.95% successful, however Soward is the most disciplined having only made 11 errors and conceded 3 penalties at 0.61 EPPG. Trent Hodkinson is the least potent attacking half on this list only averaging 2.19 APPG and 1.05 SPPG. Mitchell Pearce is the most consistent performer, he is not at the top or bottom of any category.

Below I have provided comparisons between all 8 team’s; Five Eighths, Hookers and Fullbacks. I didn’t go into detail about who performed best in each area, but they are their for you to compare them yourself. James Maloney, Kieran Foran, Robert Lui and Josh Reynolds could be possible game breakers this weekend.

Anthony Minichiello leads the way in tries with 15, but he falls down in multiple categories. 5 of the 8 fullbacks have won a grand final.

Cameron Smith is undeniably the best hooker, but he has some stiff competition in James Segeyaro and Jake Friend this season.

Below are comparisons between each teams bench and their starting forwards, excluding the Hooker.

South Sydney’s pack produce the most attacking plays per game (5.51), while Penrith’s can only manage (0.67). Penrith’s pack also produce the fewest second phase per game (8.82) and the fewest tackles (156.22), however they concede the fewest errors and penalties per game (5.34), South Sydney concede the most (9.12). Canterbury produce the most second phase per game (15.55), NQ’s pack run the most metres (903.06), While Manly’s runs for the fewest (674.00). The Broncos average the most tackles (208.31), but have the lowest success rate (93.33%). Melbourne’s pack are the most effective in defence with a success rate of 95.80%.

Below is a comparison between each teams Centre and Wings.

Again South Sydney produce the most attacking plays per game (7.11), Brisbane produce the fewest (4.14), as well as the fewest; second phase (8.17) tackles per game (20.98), However they produce the fewest errors and penalties per game (4.11). This comparison isn;t overly fair for Brisbane who have named Corey Oates at Centre. Penrith lead the way in second phase (16.63) and tackles per game (35.53). Sydney produce the most metres per game (488.31) and Canterbury the fewest (343.74). Souths have the most effective defence (87.48%) and Man;y have the least effective (80.83%).

Going purely on statistics and recent form I would have to back; Sydney to beat Penrith, Souths to beat Manly, North Queensland to beat Brisbane, and Melbourne to beat Canterbury.

Its finals time and anything can happen, lets hope for your teams sake it does.

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Terry Campese Then and Now

Terry Campese was told this week that he was no longer guaranteed a spot in first grade. He now seems destined to play out his contract for Mounties in NSW Cup or perhaps, or perhaps he may receive an offer from Super League, Canberra however may not be interested in topping up his wage. Since the initial injury sustained in the 2010 finals series, the one time Australian & NSW pivot has failed to recapture the stellar form he displayed from 2008 to 2010. He has only managed 43 games in the past 4 seasons, as opposed to the 87 in the 4 seasons prior to his string of injuries. Of the 43 games he has lined up for since the 2010 injury, he has only seen 17 victories at 39.5%, as opposed to the 47% success rate between 2008-2010, where Canberra made the finals on 2 occasions (2008 & 2010). 

Terry’s attacking stats since 2010 have seen a reduction in all areas, most noticably his running game.  Prior to the injury Terry was running on average 6 times a game for 50 metres, from 2011 onwards he has only been running the ball slightly over 2 times a game for under 20 metres. Terry’s diminished running game has had a flow on effect to all other areas of his game, his ability to produce second phase plays has dropped dramatically. Between 2008-10 Campese would on average offload 1.4 times a game and break 2.3 tackles. Since 2010 he has only managed 0.4 offloads per game and 0.7 tackle breaks. 

Terry’s defence has also suffered post injury, possibly due to a reduced ability to move laterally fast enough in response to changing attack. Between 2008-10, he averaged 18.5 tackles per game, only missing 1.8 on average, a success rate of 91%. This percentage was better then many back rowers playing the game and was on par with John Sutton. Since the injury Terry has averaged 16.3 tackles per game missing 2.1 on average, a success rate of 88%. This percentage is still high for a half, but is statistically significant.

Above and below are comparisons of regular season form between Cooper Cronk and Terry Campese from 2008 to 2010. These comparisons help to illustrate the kind of player Terry Campese was and only begs the question how good could he have been if not for a horrible string of injuries. Keep in mind these are only the raw numbers of a Five Eighth and Halfback, but both where the dominant halves for their club during this period. During this period Cooper only out pointed Terry in Try Assists, Errors and Penalties. Terry averaged more Try’s, Line Breaks, Line Break Assists, Forty Twenties, Forced Drop Outs, Offloads, Tackle Busts, he missed fewer tackles and had a higher defensive success rate. 

Injury has robbed Terry Campese the opportunity to ever fulfil his full potential. Frustrated Canberra fans have had enough of losing and many blame Terry for not reaching his former heights and for taking up so much of the Salary cap, however it is not his fault Canberra decided to sign him on such a lucrative deal after he sustained the devastating injury, that mistake is on the Raiders administration. Lets hope he can see out the rest of his career injury free, enjoying what time on the paddock he has left. 

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JARRYD HAYNE’S REGULAR SEASON FORM SINCE 2009

This is a quick breakdown of Jarryd Hayne’s statistics from 2009 to the present. His worst year was was 2013 under Ricky Stuart. 

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Sam Tomkins Boom or Bust in the NRL

Sam Tomkins made the brave move to leave his beloved club Wigan and take on the NRL in 2014. He left the English Super League having achieved it all, he won two Premierships 2010 & 2013, two Challenge Cups 2011 & 2013 and was named player of the year (Man of Steel) in 2012. Sam has represented England on 25 occasions scoring 21 tries. He played 129 Super League matches, winning 100, giving him the ridiculous winning percentage of 77.5%. To put it into perspective Cameron Smith’s winning percentage in slightly below 70% and he has played for the most dominant team of the last decade. Of course the Super League is not a competitive as the NRL. For example the bottom placed London Broncos have lost all 23 games in 2014, while bottom placed Canberra and Cronulla have each won 5.

The New Zealand Warriors had to pay a world record transfer fee of 700,000 pounds to acquire Tomkins from Wigan. His arrival signalled the beginning of the end for talented Fullback Kevin Locke’s association with the Warriors, has Sam been worth or the fuss and money?

By the numbers Sam Tomkins as played in all 20 games for the Warriors in 2014 and won 11, a winning percentage of 55%. He has scored 10 tries, set up 9, broke the line 12 times, assisted in 16 line breaks and forced 4 drop outs. His strike rate is down in all departments when compared to his numbers in Super League but that is to be expected. Super League do not record line break assists or forced drop outs, so I cannot get an accurate figure on attacking plays per game, on the stats available its 2.7, so you could safely estimate somewhere around 3.5 to 4 APPG.

In the NRL Sam has produced 2.6 Attacking Plays Per Game (APPG), on par with Brett Stewart, Greg Inglis and only slightly below Billy Slater with 2.8 APPG. Surprise packet Michael Morgan is in killer form averaging 3.3 APPG, but man of the year Jarryd Hayne is sitting pretty on top with 4.1 APPG. These numbers indicate that in attack Tomkins has not been outclassed and can match it with some of the biggest names in the NRL. As a side note gun young Fullback Anthony Milford who is not included in the picture above has averaged 2.75 APPG in 2014.

Sam has broken 79 tackles and offloaded 14 times in 2014, giving him an average of 4.7 Second Phase Per Game (SPPG), a higher rate then Brett Stewart (2.9 SPPG), Michael Morgan (3.6 SPPG) and Billy Slater (4.3 SPPG). Of the Fullbacks shown above only Greg Inglis (4.9 SPPG) and Jarryd Hayne (7.1 SPPG) are more proactive when it comes to second phase. Anthony Milford has averaged 6.25 SPPG.

Sam has run 258 times for 2074 metres at 103.7 per game. This is only slightly less then his average run metres in Super League (110.5) and is a solid contribution. He averages more metres then Brett Stewart (89.4) and Michael Morgan (100.9). Billy Slater (117.4), Greg Inglis (143.6) and Jarryd Hayne (174.2) have run for significantly more metres. Anthony Milford has averaged 104.65 metres per game.

In defence Tomkins has been impressive given his diminutive stature. He has made 104 tackles from 130 attempts at 80% successful. 80% is a very good percentage for a NRL fullback. Hayne, Slater, Inglis and Stewarts career average in the position are all slightly below or above 80%. In Super League Sam defended at 88% successful, I have not seen any NRL Fullback do this for an extended period of time. His defence in 2014 has been better then Jarryd Hayne’s (75.31), Billy Slater’s (76.99) and Brett Stewarts (79.52). Michael Morgan (86.92) and Greg Inglis (88.89) are at a new level when it comes to defending at fullback in 2014. Anthony Milford’s has been defending at 65.77% in 2014.

When it comes to discipline Sam has made 26 errors and given away 7 penalties for an average of 1.7 Errors/Penalties Per Game (EPPG), 0.4 more then his average in the Super League. This is a better rate then Billy Slater and Jarryd Hayne, who both average 1.9 EPPG, but significantly worse then Michael Morgan (1.5), Brett Stewart (1.0) and Greg Inglis (0.6). Anthony Milford has averaged 1.3 EPPG.

In conclusion Sam Tomkins first year in the world’s hardest Rugby League competition has been a success. He has matched it with some of the biggest names and shown he is up for the challenge. It’s good to see a quality English player come to Australia in their prime and have a crack. It’s a shame we shall never see the likes of James Roby or Kevin Sinfield run around the NRL.

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Fringe NRL halves making it in the Super League

I have collated the 2014 season statistics of 12 ex NRL halves who are currently playing in the English Super League.

NRL Halves make the move to England for various reason, like Travis Burns who made the move after a number of on field disciplinary issues or Sam Williams and Josh Drinkwater who made the move due to a lack of opportunities. Some try to return to the NRL, but few are successful, as was the case with Daniel Holdsworth, Michael Dobson and Michael Witt . It is rare for a top class NRL half to make the move, unless he is squeezed out due to salary cap, as Brett Finch was after the Melbourne salary cap scandal, or they may make the move towards the end of their career.

Travis Burns:

Played 127 NRL games for 3 clubs. Burns made the switch to Super League in 2013 after lengthy suspensions in 2012. He has lined up for Hull KR 23 times in 2014 and leads our list in try assists with 19, he also has the most offloads with 34 and forty twenties with 4. He has made the most tackles as well as missed the most of all other players on this list, making 406 tackles from 458 attempts at 88% successful. Burns has continued his bad boy reputation having spent 10 minutes in the bin twice in 2014.

Rangi Chase:

Played 32 NRL games for 2 clubs. Chase made the switch to Super League in 2009 after a lack of opportunities in the NRL. He has lined up for Salford 19 times in 2014 and leads this list in line breaks with 16,  tackle breaks with 73, carries with 291, metres with 1675, average metres with 88 per game and errors with 27. He is second in tries (6), try assists (18), forty twenties (3), offloads (31) and missed tackles (49). He is the most potent attacking half on the list averaging 2.16 Attacking Plays Per Game (APPG), followed by Blake Green (2.08 APPG), he is also the most active second phase half on our list averaging 5.47 SPPG, followed by Travis Burns (4.61 SPPG). Chase is the least disciplined half, with a defensive percentage of 83%, and an average of 2.16 Errors/Penalties Per Game (EPPG).

Blake Green:

Played 43 NRL games for 3 clubs and will make a comeback to the NRL in 2015 with the Melbourne Storm. He has only lined up 12 times for Wigan in 2014 and has amassed 5 tries, 13 try assists and 7 line breaks, averaging 2.08 APPG. He is solid in all areas of the game, averaging 3.17 SPPG, 92% in defence, has averaged 62 run metres per game and only 1.17 EPPG. If anyone can help in transition back to the NRL, Craig Bellamy can.

Josh Drinkwater:

Played 4 NRL games for the Saint George Dragons in 2013. He impressed in NYC leading the competition in try assists in 2012. He struggled to establish himself and was soon pushed back in the pecking order once Sam Williams another member of our list and Gareth Widdop where signed by the Dragons. He has lined up 20 times for the winless London Broncos in 2014 and has scored 2 tries, set up 11 and broke the line 5 times. He has conceded the most penalties with 19 and has been solid in defence (87% successful).

Lance Hohaia:

Played 185 NRL games for the NZ Warriors. Hohaia mad the move in 2012 to Saint Helens. He has lined up 16 times in 2014 and leads our list in tries with 7. Hohaia has set up 11 tries and cracked the line on 10 occasions. He is the most effective defender on our list at 94% successful. Hohaia was a solid NRL player and has moved to England to finish off his career.

Luke Walsh:

Played 120 NRL games for 2 clubs.  Walsh moved to the Super League in 2014 after he was pushed out of Penrith. He was underrated in the NRL averaging 2.7 Attacking Plays Per Game (APPG), Which includes line break assists and forced drop out, 2 statistics the Super League do not record. He has lined up 16 times for ladder leading Saint Helens and has scored 5 tries, set up 11, cracked the line 9 times and kicked 2 forty twenties, for an average of 1.69 APPG. He has been solid in defence at 85% and averaged over 60 run metres per game, which is 3 times as much as he did last year in the NRL.

Kris Keating:

Played 88 games in the NRL for 2 clubs including 2 grand final losses. He made the move to the Super League in 2014 after he was pushed out by Trent Hodkinson. Keating was one of the least potent attacking halves in the NRL, only averaging 1.33 APPG. He has lined up 20 times for Hull KR in 2014, scoring 5 tries, set up 10 and cracked the line 7 times. He has averaged over 90% in defence and gives away on average the fewest Errors/Penalties Per Game (EPPG) at 0.90.

Tim Smith:

Played 90 NRL games for 2 clubs. Smith was touted as the next big thing after he set up 40 tries in his debut season, earning the rookie of the year award. His NRL career fell apart after a string over alcohol related incidents, one of which involved the punching of the Australian Cricket captain Michael Clarke. He has had two stints in the Super League playing for 3 different clubs. He has only played 8 games for Wakefield in 2014, scoring 2 tries, setting up 9 and cracking the line 3 times. He is the worst second phase half on our list only averaging 1.13 SPPG, comprising of 8 tackle busts and 1 offload. He has been solid in defence at 91%.

Pita Godinet:

Played 18 NRL games for the NZ Warriors over 3 years and could never maintain a starting role. He made the move to Wakefield in 2014. He has lined up 19 times in 2014 and has scored 5 tries, set up 9 and broke the line 15 times. He averages 88% in defence and has the largest average carry of any member on our list, averaging 6.62 metres per carry.

Sam Williams:

Played 46 NRL games for 2 clubs and was pushed out of Saint George after Benji Marshall was signed. Williams was a solid half in the NRL averaging over 2 APPG and defended at 85%. He has lined up 6 timed for Catalans in 2014, setting up 5 tries and breaking the line once, he is the third best second phase half on this list, averaging 3.33 SPPG. Williams has been good in defence at 90% and is running for almost 60 metres a game. There is talk that he may be heading back to the NRL in 2015.

Jacob Miller:

Played 9 NRL games for the West Tigers and won a NYC premiership in 2012. He was also touted as the next big thing, but struggled at NRL level. He made the move to Hull FC mid way through 2013 after the emergence of Luke Brooks. He has lined up 9 times in 2014 and has produced meagre results in attack. He is the least potent half in attack on our list only averaging 0.78 APPG. Miller also averages the fewest run metres of any half on the list, at only 40 per game.

Jordan Rankin:

Played 17 NRL games for the Gold Coast Titans over 6 seasons. Rankin moved to Hull FC in 2014 and has had a solid first season. He has lined up 18 times in 2014 and has scored 9 tries, set up 8 and busted the line 8 times. He has busted 32 tackles, defended at 93% and averaged 58 run metres per game.

Most of these halves will never see the NRL again and any that do will most likely be on the Fringe. It will be interesting to see how Blake Green goes next year alongside some of the finest players to ever play the game.

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2014 Lock Comparison

Corey Parker’s move to the front row has narrowed the competition for the title of the NRL’s best Lock. Paul Gallen and Sam Burgess appear to be the only real contenders for this title. They are easily the most potent in attack,  Burgess leads the tries and line breaks with 7 a piece and Gallen leads line break assists with 6. Gallen averages 1.63 Attacking Plays Per Game (APPG), this is significantly more then Burgess who averages 1.06 APPG. Feleti Mateo leads the try assists with 5 and is a close third in APPG at 1.00. The Warriors Sebastine Ikahihifo is the least potent lock when it comes to attack in 2014 only averaging 0.07 APPG.

Burgess and Gallen also lead all other Locks by some margin in second phase play. Sam has registered 53 tackle busts and 43 offloads in 2014. The next closest Lock has 16 less tackle busts and 14 less offloads. Gallen has only played 8 games in 2014 so he has significantly less game time then Burgess, however he averages more Second Phase Per Game (SPPG), averaging 6.38 to Sam’s 5.33. Glen Hall with only 7 tackle bust and 4 offloads is worst second phase lock in 2014. This only gives him an average of 0.61 SPPG.

Burgess and Gallen comfortably average the most metres per game, averaging a staggering 163 and 164 metres respectively. Trent Merrin comes in third at 150 metres per game. Sam Burgess has ran 365 times for 2936 metres. This is over 100 carries and 500 metres more then any other Lock. Ryan Hinchcliffe averaging 48 metres a game is the least active running lock this season.

Work Horse Shaun Fensom has racked up 730 tackles in 2014, 130 more then Sam Burgess and Ryan Hinchcliffe who have each made 597. Shaun averages over 40 tackles a game and has only missed 21 all season. This makes him 97.20% effective in defence. Only Glenn Hall has a better percentage with 97.55, however he averages 23 less tackles a game then Fensom. Only Greg Bird (87.34%) and Adam Docker (89.41%) are less then 90% effective in defence.

When it comes to discipline Sam Burgess is easily the worst offender with the most penalties (15) and errors (22). This gives him an average of 2.06 Errors/Penalties Per Game (EPPG) Greg Bird is nipping at his heals at 1.86 EPPG. Greg Eastwood with 3 penalties and 2 errors is the most disciplined Lock, averaging on 0.33 EPPG.

Best by the numbers: Paul Gallen, just gets over the top of Sam due to his poor discipline.

Worst by the numbers: Adam Docker, average in all areas of the game.

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Reliance on the spine.

 

Some claim the “Spine” (1,6,7,9) of a football team is the key to a premiership, others would argue that forwards, and defence win games. I would say its a combination of all, as well as a special team cohesion not shown by the numbers. For example Manly sit on top of the ladder, with the 4th most attacking plays, 9th most metres, and the 10th best defensive percentage. Compared to the Cowboys who sit 12th, with the 5th most attacking plays, 3rd most metres, and the 3nd best defensive percentage. If it was purely mathematical, Manly would not would not be in such a lofty position. Moving on.

The purpose of this article is to rank a teams reliance on their spine in attack. My method which was basic, and only focusing on the statistics available, was to add up all the Tries, Try Assists, Line Breaks, Line Break Assists, Forced Drop Outs, and 40/20s that have been notched up by a teams Fullback, Five Eighth, Halfback, and Hooker (including interchange Hooker). I would then divide this figure by the number of games played by the team to receive a number. This numbers represents the average number of “attacking plays per game” a spine had produced. I would then do the same for the entire team to get a total team “attacking plays per game”. I then used these two figures to calculate what percentage of attacking plays the teams spine had performed of the total. For example the Cowboys relied on their spine for 57.95% of the total attacking plays while the Roosters only relied on their spine for 41.87% of the total.

The problem with this method is that I have not factored in injuries during the game, and swapping of position, such as the Roosters routinely do with their Fullbacks. This effective should be minimal as Anthony Minichiello and RTS have only have a difference on 3 attacking plays, so hopefully it evens out.

The teams are listed below from highest reliance on the spine to lowest. I have also added in a number of other figures, for comparison. Its hard to know if such statistics have any use. Sometimes they confirm exactly what you want them to. For example the Bulldog’s spine have the 14th most attacking plays, and the team has the 12th most, which is not spectacular for a team coming 3rd, but they have the most metres by far, and the second best defensive percentage. These figures seem to confirm that the Bulldogs success belongs to their Forward pack and not their spine. However such numbers do not take into account the Hooker’s control of the ruck, or the Halves direction during play. Which are huge factors in winning football games. Other times stats make no sense at all. The Cowboys for example tick every statistical box of a top eight team, and yet they sit outside the top eight. Perhaps it is over reliance on their spine. I am not sure.

 

1. Cowboys (57.95%)                                                                                  

Pos 12th, 7 wins, 9 losses.

1st in spine attacking plays.

5th in total attacking plays.

All run metres 23751 (3rd)

Defensive percentage 92.81 (2nd)

The Cowboys have used 8 players in their spine out of a total of 29 total in 2014.

 

2. Storm (55.73%)

Pos 8th, 8 wins, 8 losses.

2nd in spine attacking plays.

6th in total attacking plays.

All run metres 23389 (7th)

Defensive percentage 91.99 (7th)

The storm have used 8 players in their spine out of a total of 27 total in 2014.

 

3. Panthers (55.42%)

Pos 2nd, 11 wins, 5 losses.

4th in spine attacking plays.

10th in total attacking plays.

All run metres 23798 (2nd)

Defensive percentage 90.58 (12th)

The Panthers have used 7 players in their spine out of a total of 25 total in 2014.

 

4. Tigers (54.29%)

Pos 10th, 8 wins, 8 losses.

10th* in spine attacking plays.

14th in total attacking plays.

All run metres 22726 (13th)

Defensive percentage 89.87 (16th)

The Tigers have used 8 players in their spine out of 27 total in 2014.

 

5. Raiders (53.44%)

Pos 15th, 5 wins, 11 losses.

5th in spine attacking plays.

9th in total attacking plays.

All run metres 22115 (16th)

Defensive percentage 91.71 (8th)

The Raiders have used 8 players in their spine out of 26 total in 2014.

 

6. Sharks (53.18%)

Pos 16th, 4 wins, 12 losses.

15th in spine attacking plays.

15th in total attacking plays.

All run metres 22214 (15th)

Defensive percentage 92.33 (5th)

The Sharks have used 13 players in their spine out of 29 total in 2014.

 

7. Rabbitohs (50.20%)

Pos 4th, 9 wins, 7 losses.

8th in spine attacking plays.

7th in total attacking plays.

All run metres 22994 (10th)

Defensive percentage 94.19 (1st)

The Rabbitohs have used 9 players in their spine out of 27 total in 2014.

 

8. Knights (50.00%)

Pos 14th, 5 wins, 11 losses.

13th in spine attacking plays.

13th in total attacking plays.

All run metres 23486 (6th)

Defensive percentage 90.42 (13th)

The Knights have used 8 players in their spine out of 27 total in 2014.

 

9. Titans (48.21)

Pos 13th, 7 wins, 9 losses.

16th in spine attacking plays.

16th in total attacking plays.

All run metres 22855 (12th)

Defensive percentage 90.42 (15th)

The Titans have used 11 players in their spine out of 29 total in 2014.

 

10. Dragons (47.88%)

Pos 9th, 8 wins, 8 losses.

12th in spine attacking plays.

11th in total attacking plays.

All run metres 22954 (11th)

Defensive percentage 92.58 (4th)

The Dragons have used 9 players in their spine out of 27 total in 2014.

 

11. Sea Eagles (46.43%)

Pos 1st, 11 wins, 5 losses.

6th in spine attacking plays.

4th in total attacking plays.

All run metres 23071 (9th)

Defensive percentage 91.65 (10th)

The Sea Eagles have used 7 players in their spine out of 26 total in 2014.

 

12. Warriors (45.66%)

Pos 6th, 9 wins, 7 losses.

3rd in spine attacking plays.

1st in total attacking plays.

All run metres 23638 (5th)

Defensive percentage 91.50 (11th)

The Warriors have used 6 players in their spine out of 28 total in 2014.

 

13. Eels (45.55%)

Pos 11th, 8 wins, 8 losses.

7th in spine attacking plays.

3rd in total attacking plays.

All run metres 22610 (14th)

Defensive percentage 90.39 (14th)

The Eels have used 7 players in their spine out of 29 total in 2014.

 

14. Broncos (45.24%)

Pos 7th, 8 wins, 8 losses.

10th* in spine attacking plays.

8th in total attacking plays.

All run metres 23671 (4th)

Defensive percentage 91.66 (9th)

The Broncos have used 5 players in their spine out of 25 total in 2014.

 

15. Bulldogs (42.73%)

Pos 3rd, 11 wins, 5 losses.

14th in spine attacking plays.

12th in total attacking plays.

All run metres 25007 (1st)

Defensive percentage 92.92 (2nd)

The Bulldogs have used 10 players in their spine out of 26 total in 2014.

 

16. Roosters (41.87%)

Pos 5th, 9 wins, 7 losses.

9th in spine attacking plays.

2nd in total attacking plays.

All run metres 23230 (8th)

Defensive percentage 92.08 (6th)

The Roosters have used 7 players in their spine out of 25 total in 2014.

 

If nothing else all these numbers provide interesting talking points.

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